Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Accepted! The Numbers Game

I got my acceptance to University of Toledo.  So, this law school thing is one step closer to being a "go".  I got my LSAT results on Friday, completed my electronic application later that afternoon.  Today, is Wednesday.  So, really, a total of 3 working days and I got the decision.

I imagine that for the vast majority of folks applying, this is a pretty straightforward process.  Schools can talk all they want about evaluating this or that, but ultimately, it comes down to undergrad GPA and the LSAT.  I'm sure a small handful of students are selected who didn't line up, numbers-wise, but other than the truly elite and highly selective schools, the important questions are:  can you fill out a FAFSA and did you meet our minimum requirements?

The guys at the Barely Legal blog make a great point.  The reality is that for most reasonably intelligent people, there is a law school, somewhere in the country, that will accept you.  If you want to examine the numbers a bit more analytically, I figure it this way:

Half the population is below average intelligence.  Figure most (though not all) of those folks will probably not go to college.  The odds of them graduating are really poor.

Roughly 30% of youngish people have bachelor's degrees.

Throw out the ones who went to University of Phoenix, or schools that give you college credit for "life experience" (seriously, what the hell is that all about?  We all gain life experience.  So, are they saying that basically, eventually, everybody has at least a BA's worth of life experience?  Fair enough, but that doesn't mean they should get a BA.  The whole point of a college degree was supposed to be that you learned something, not that you were alive.  Really, that's what a baccalaureate is supposed to signify?  That you are alive?)

Throw out the ones who barely scooted by and got out of school by the skin of their teeth yet managed to meet the minimum qualifications for a degree.

So, that leaves, what, maybe 15% of the population?  20%?  The pool of people who are even thinking of applying to law school pretty much already eliminated the bottom 80% of the population.  So, if you're thinking you want to go to law school, you're going to get accepted somewhere, in all likelihood.

Basically, being "good enough to get into law school" is really not that different than "good enough to get a bachelor's degree".  If by "bachelor's degree" we mean schools where you go to class, take tests, etc. 

Which brings up another thing that's been happening since I got my LSAT score:  I've been getting e-mails from law schools all across the country.  The schpiel is basically the same, "We notice you have a pulse.  Wouldn't you like to go to school here?"

Well duh... OF COURSE I WOULD.  I wish I were in a position to pick up and move to Ave Maria Law School on the Gulf Coast of Florida.  I could spend the next 3 years getting an amazing tan, and oogling young, scantily clad women on the beach.  It's not like I think it's appealing to live in the industrial midwest, snort sinus medicine from quart bottles every day and have to spend each day looking at a bunch of overweight, pasty-skinned midwestern troglodytes that are nearly as homely as I am.

Which of these schools sounds cool to me?  All of them.  The one in Portland, Maine, the ones I've heard of like Vaparaiso and Temple?  All of them. 

However, Toledo is going to be a perfect fit for me.  I'm glad they accepted me and this is going to work with my life better than a lot of other options. 

In any event, I doubt Toledo looked at much beyond my grades and LSAT.  The applications as much as say so these days.  A lot of schools only want a minimal number of letters of recommendation.  Seriously, how many people can't find 4 guys who will say that the person is wonderful?  Especially if the recommendations are from professors, you're going to know a lot more about what kind of student the person was by his GPA than by a couple of letters.

It does make me wonder about biglaw hiring, though.  They're churning and burning a lot of associates.  In a lot of ways, they are like the military:  lots of new recruits, but their business model is based on most of those new associates either getting burned out and leaving, finding less-demanding work elsewhere, or not quite making the cut and getting the boot.  Not everybody who joins the firm ends up as a partner making $700K a year. 

I've known two women who worked biglaw.  Two of the smartest, most organized, most ambitious people I had ever met.  Really, you knew from spending about 10 minutes with them that they were a cut above.  If they were new-hires in a fortune 500 company, they'd be vice presidents within a decade.  They were that sharp.  One of them lasted 2 years in biglaw.  The other lasted 4. 

They also aren't hiring much right now.  So, their pipeline has been interrupted.  If the economy picks up, my graduation year could be a good time to be trying to get a job because they'll need to reload and make up for a few years where they didn't throw enough bricks under the foundation of the pyramid.

I'm not the ideal biglaw candidate because of my age, but I am starting to wonder, how much do they care about that?  I mean, they can't ask your age, and technically, they can't use that as a hiring criteria.  (We know they do, but they can't do it overtly.) 

I bet it's pretty much a numbers game for them, too.  They probably have thresholds.  If it's this school, they need to be in the top 20%.  If it's this second tier school, they need to be in the top 10%.  If it's these other schools, they need to be in the top 2 or 3 graduates.  (That's just a personal WAG.  So, don't think there's any actual data behind those numbers.)

Granted, they probably don't hire everybody they interview, but frankly, if you've seen the personality of a lot of top law school grads, you know they aren't hiring based on interpersonal skills, either.  I bet the bulk of their decision comes down to just class rank and the school you went to, period.

In any event, I'm in at my #1 choice.  It's also my stretch school and my safety, too.  If I had not gotten accepted, I would not be going to law school, period.  So, I'm happy.

They have a new student orientation next week.  I don't know if it's required, but I think I'll go.  After that, I need to start writing checks for deposits. 

Barring some unforeseeable calamity, it looks like this is going to happen.  Though I take nothing for granted these days since a lot of unforeseeable calamities seem to have happened in the past couple of years.

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